HVAC Equipment Shipments Show Signs of Recovery After 2025 Slump
Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International reported on July 7 that HVAC equipment shipments are stabilizing after steep declines in 2025. Heat pump shipments dropped 13.9% over the past 12 months. They remain up 1.2% year-to-date. The most recent three-month period through April 2026 showed 6% growth compared to last year. HARDI expects annual growth rates to turn positive in the coming months.
This stabilization suggests replacement and installation work may pick up after a tough year for contractors. While the 12-month numbers still look negative, the recent three-month growth in heat pumps indicates customer demand is returning. Air conditioner shipments are also leveling off after significant drops.
Review your equipment ordering patterns now to avoid delays if demand accelerates faster than expected. Talk to your distributor about lead times. Consider stocking popular models if you have the cash flow and storage space.
Key Takeaways:
- Heat pump shipments down 13.9% over 12 months but up 1.2% year-to-date
- Recent three months through April 2026 show 6% heat pump growth
- HARDI expects annual growth rates to turn positive in coming months
- Air conditioner shipments also showing stabilization after 2025 declines
