Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Shipments Drop After 2025 Buildup
Supply Chain
Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International reported in April 2026 that all three unitary product lines are experiencing drastic shipment declines. Air conditioners and heat pumps show the steepest drops. The decline follows a purchasing surge in late 2024 and early 2025. Distributors stocked up ahead of the federal efficiency regulation changes. HARDI noted that distributor sales-to-inventory ratios have recovered since summer 2025. This indicates dealers are successfully moving through the excess stock.
The inventory correction may create pricing pressure as distributors clear built-up stock.
Contact your distributor to ask about closeout pricing on overstocked models before inventory levels normalize.
Key Takeaways:
- Air conditioner and heat pump shipments dropped sharply following 2024-2025 pre-transition buying surge
- Distributor inventory ratios have recovered since summer 2025 through steady sales
- All three unitary product categories showing significant shipment declines in early 2026
