35,000 Sheet Metal Workers Near Retirement, Only Two Enter Per Five Leaving
Workforce
The Sheet Metal and Air Conditioning Contractors' National Association reported on September 30 that approximately 35,000 sheet metal workers are expected to retire soon. More than half of the current workforce is already over age 45. For every five workers leaving the trade, only two new workers are entering to replace them. SMACNA also found that 90% of its contractor members are currently experiencing labor shortages.
This shortage will hit your installation capacity directly. Fewer available sheet metal workers means longer waits for subcontractors. It also means higher labor costs when you can find them. Jobs that require custom ductwork will take longer to schedule and complete. Some contractors may need to turn down work or push out project timelines.
Start building relationships with local trade schools and apprenticeship programs now. Consider offering paid apprenticeships or training stipends. This brings new workers into your pipeline before the shortage gets worse.
September 30, 2026
Key Takeaways:
- 35,000 sheet metal workers approaching retirement with only partial replacement rate
- More than half the current workforce is over age 45
- 90% of SMACNA contractors report active labor shortages
- Only two workers entering trade for every five leaving
